October 2025 Returns and Asset Performance
November 2, 2025
December 2025 Returns and Asset Performance
January 2, 2026
Performance of Major Asset Classes
November 2025
Introduction
November returns were challenged by a hawkish Fed and concerns regarding tech valuations. The S&P 500 index (+0.1%) finished the month unchanged after an initial drawdown of -4.3%. The NASDAQ (-1.6%) did not fare as well. But there was still plenty to be thankful for. Large-cap Health Care (+9.3%) shares saw strong returns, as did US Residential REITS (+6.7%). At the same time, the US Aggregate Bond index is up 7.49% year-to-date, while the iBOXX Corporate bond index is up 8.06% over the same period.
The following analysis is a visual summary of monthly and year-to-date returns by asset group. The aim is to help investors to benchmark portfolio returns and to see some emerging trends across markets.
Core US Indices
The S&P 600 Small Cap Index (+2.6%) outperformed the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index (2.2%) and the S&P 500 Large Cap index (+0.1%). Market breadth improved as seen in the returns of the Equal Weight Index (+1.9%). Losses were concentrated in mega large caps (-0.5%) and the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 index (-1.6%). Year-to-date, the S&P 500 index (+16.4%) lags the NASDAQ-100 index (+21.6%), but the cap-weighted index is still outperforming the Equal Weight index (+10.8%).
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US Sector Indices
November returns delivered mixed performance by sector. Large-cap Health Care (+9.3%) and small cap Health Care (+8.1%) led the sectors. Shares of Materials companies also did well, notably small cap Materials (+7.6%). Losses were concentrated in large-cap Technology (-4.8%) and small cap Utilities (-1.9%). Year-to-date, the top returns are with large cap Technology (+23.7%), Utilities (+22.2%), and Communication Services (+20.3%). Large cap laggards since January include Consumer Staples (+2.9%) and Real Estate (+4.8%).
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US Factor Indices
Factor portfolios are constructed to focus on the core drivers behind returns. Single factors include company size, relative value, profitability, growth, and momentum. Multi-factor portfolios combine two or more factors. In November, the top performing factor portfolios were the High Dividend Index (+4.0%), S&P 400 Mid Cap Value Index (+3.3%), and the small cap Value index (+2.9%). Weak performers include US Momentum (-1.6%), and the S&P 500 Growth index (-0.9%). Year-to-date, the factor portfolios with the strongest returns are Value (+28.9%), Growth (+22.2%), and US Momentum (+21.8%). All three have outperformed the broader S&P 500 (+16.4%) Index.
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US Thematic Portfolios
US thematic portfolios were subject to profit taking in November. Heavy losses were seen in Blockchain shares (-18.4%) and Robotics/AI (-7.0%). Only US Manufacturing shares (0.1%) saw gains. Since January, most thematic portfolios are outperforming the S&P 500 index. The top spot goes to Renewable Energy shares (+50.9%), followed by Blockchain shares (+47.2%) and Semiconductors (+36.5%).
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Developed Market Equities
The S&P Developed Markets index (+1.3%) outperformed US benchmarks in November with notable returns in Ireland (+6.7%), Austria (4.9%), and Switzerland (+4.4%). Europe (+0.8%) was pulled down by the Netherlands (-1.1%) and the Nordic countries. The best markets year-to-date include Spain (+68.3%), Austria (+62.1%), and Italy (+49.7%).
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Emerging Market Equities
The S&P Emerging Markets Index (-1.7%) ended its positive run in November, lagging the S&P 500 index for the first time in three months. Notwithstanding, there was some outstanding results. Returns were led by Brazil (+7.8%), Chile (+7.2%), and Vietnam (+5.2%). Key laggards in included Saudi Arabia (-7.1%) and South Korea (-6.3%). Year-to-date performance is led by Korea (+78.6%), Poland (+66.1%) and Peru (+65.8%).
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Government Bonds
During November, the US Aggregate Bond Index (+0.61%) outperformed most benchmark stock indices. 7- to 10-year US Treasuries (+0.99%) led returns, followed by 3- to 7-year Treasuries (+0.73%). Short-term Treasury bills (+0.30%) had an annual yield of 3.6%. As this benchmark rate declines in the coming months, expect a wave of funds to roll out of CDs into higher yielding notes and bonds. Year-to-date, the US Aggregate Bond Index (+7.49%). The =top slot goes to Emerging Market Government Bonds (+13.5%). The total return on Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (+6.00%) has also been solid when compared to short-term Treasury Bills.
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Corporate & Infrastructure Bonds
The benchmark iBOXX Corporate Bond Index (+0.75%) bounced back in November, while US Residential REITS (+6.68%) led corporate income investments. Global infrastructure projects (+3.38%) and US infrastructure project bonds (1.96%) also did well. Convertible Bonds (-2.75%) were the only product in the red in November. Since January, the iBOXX Corporate Bond Index (8.06%) has had a solid total return. Top performing investments year-to-date include Global Infrastructure Projects (+22.7%), Convertible Bonds (+19.9%), and US Infrastructure projects (+17.6%).
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Commodities
Commodity returns, as measured by the S&P GS Commodity Index (+0.3%), were modest in November. Natural Gas (+10.3%) again topped the list, followed by Silver (+4.8%) and Coffee (+3.9%). Gold (+2.8%) held onto positive gains and outperformed stocks for the month. Cocoa (-17.2%), Live cattle (-12.4%), and Feeder cattle (-10.0%) were notably weak. For 2025, the commodity index (+6.9%) lags behind US stock and bond returns. However, top performers in the precious metals group include Silver (+73.8%), Platinum (+72.5%), and Gold (+55.6%).
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Currencies
The U.S. Dollar index (+0.4%) was unchanged for November and is down 7.6% since the start of the year.
Cryptocurrencies
Benchmark Bitcoin (-17.%) tanked in November on heavy profit taking, while Ethereum (-21.2%) and Cardona (-31%) showed how volatile the crypto market can be. Over the last eleven months, Bitcoin (-2.7%) is now negative.
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Have questions or concerns about the performance of your portfolio? Could you benefit from a capital preservation strategy or a custom portfolio formulation that better aligns to your return goals and risk appetite? Whatever your needs, we are here to listen and to help. Contact us here.
Saffron Capital LLC is a registered investment advisor that provides guided growth and risk-managed portfolios. The company is employee-owned and Minnesota-based.
