November 2025 Returns and Asset Performance
December 1, 2025
January 2026 Returns and Asset Performance
February 1, 2026
Performance of Major Asset Classes
December 2025
Introduction
December stock market returns were muted. However, they capped 2025 with double digit gains. The S&P 500 Index (+16+4%) posted 39 record highs last year regardless of geopolitics, restrictive fiscal policy, new tariffs, inflation uncertainty, a government shutdown, and labor-market concerns. 2025 delivered a message: market leadership can shift quickly, and portfolios must be prepared for that. Developed Markets (+32.6%) and Emerging Markets (+32.6%) stocks both outperformed the US, due in part to a weak US Dollar (-9.5%), but also stronger earnings growth overall. The biggest winner was precious metals with Gold (+64.5%), Palladium (+80.4%), Platinum (+127.6%), and Silver (+142.3%) benefiting from strategic stockpiling by central banks and industry. Capital preservation strategies also benefited, with the Aggregate Treasuries bond index (+7.19%) and Investment Grade Corporate bonds (+8.39%) delivering solid fixed-income returns. Different parts of the portfolio worked for different reasons in 2025, rewarding asset diversification and international exposures.
The following analysis is a visual summary of monthly and annual returns by asset group. The aim is to help investors to benchmark portfolio returns and to see recent trends across markets.
Core US Indices
Private Equity returns (+3.6%) were strong in December, while the returns for headline were negative, notably the NASDAQ 100 index (-0.7%). For the year, the NASDAQ 100 (+20.8%) and the S&P 500 Top 50 index (+19.5%) topped the chart. The S&P 500 Cap-Weighted index (+16.4%) outperformed the S&P 500 Equal Weighted index (+11.2%). The S&P 400 Mid Cap index (+7.4%) and the S&P 600 Small Cap index (+5.9%) trailed the group.
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US Sector Indices
December returns by sector were led by small cap Materials (+5.1%) given rapid US investments in rare earth mining. For the S&P 500 large cap sectors, December was led by Financials (3.1%), Communications (+2.3%), and Materials (+2.0%). Large-cap Technology (+0.8%) was under pressure in December given rich valuations but still managed positive returns. The hardest hit sectors for the month were Health Care (-1.4%), Real Estate (-2.1%), and Utilities (-5.1%). %). Year-to-date returns were topped by Technology (+24.6%), Communications (+23.1%), and Industrials (+19.3%). The remaining 8 sectors did not outperform the S&P 500 index.
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US Factor Indices
Factor portfolios are constructed to focus on the core drivers behind returns. Single factors include company size, relative value, profitability, growth, and momentum. Multi-factor portfolios combine two or more factors. In December, the top performing factor portfolios were US Large Cap Value (+2.9%), US Small Cap Value (+0.8%), and US Large Cap Quality (+0.6%). US Large Cap Growth (-0.2%) was negative. Year-to-date, the factor portfolios with the strongest returns are Value (+32.7%), Momentum (+22.1%), and Growth (+21.9%). All three outperformed the S&P 500 Index.
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US Thematic Portfolios
US thematic portfolios saw gains across Semiconductors (+1.6%), US Manufacturing (+1.4%) and Robotics/AI (+1.3%). Blockchain shares (-13.7%) had notable losses, as did Renewable Energy (-2.5%). For 2025, Renewable Energy (+47.0%) topped the list, followed by Semiconductors (+40.7%), and electric Vehicles (+32.2%).
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Developed Market Equities
The S&P Developed Markets index (+2.6%) outperformed US benchmarks in November with notable returns in Ireland Austria (+7.5%), Israel (+7.1%), and Spain (+5.8%). Europe (+3.3%) as a whole also outperformed the group average. For the year, the Developed Markets index (+32.6%) provided twice the return earned from the S&P 500 index. Europe (+40.0%) had several strong performers, notably Spain (+78.0%), Austria (+74.2%) and Italy (+55.7%). The U.K. (+34.9%) and Japan (+25.8%) also had strong annual returns.
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Emerging Market Equities
The S&P Emerging Markets Index (+1.9%) was positive in December, led by Peru (+12.7%), Korea (+9.4%) and South Africa (+8.7%). The MSCI stock market indices for India (-1.2%) and China (-2.2%) were down in December. For the year, the top three emerging markets are Korea (+95.3%), Peru (+86.9%), and Poland (+77.3%).
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Government Bonds
During November, the US Aggregate Bond Index (-0.26%) was pulled down by long duration bonds, including US Treasury Bonds 20Y+ (-2.66%), 10-20Y Treasuries (-1.61%) and 7-10Y Treasuries (-0.76%). Year-to-date, the US Aggregate Bond Index (+7.19%) lagged the Emerging Markets Government Bond index (+13.86%). The total return in 2025 on Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (+6.76%) has also been solid when compared to short-term Treasury Bills (4.24%).
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Corporate & Infrastructure Bonds
The benchmark iBOXX Corporate Bond Index (+0.49%) completed two months of gains in December. Hedged High Yield Bonds (+0.91%) were the top performer in the US in December. Many corporate issues saw losses in the last month including US Investment Grade Bonds (-0.74%), US Infrastructure Project Bonds (-1.42%), and US Residential REITS (-4.58%). In 2025, the top performing corporate issues were Global Infrastructure Projects (+21.31%), Convertible Bonds (+18.10%), and Developed Market Corporate Bonds (+17.41%).
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Commodities
Commodity returns, as measured by the S&P GS Commodity Index (-0.9%), were modest in December. Silver (+24.2%), Platinum (+21.3%), and Cocoa (+12.2%) had strong monthly returns. Deflating prices were seen for Gasoline (-10.0%), Coffee (-15.6%), and Natural Gas (+24.0%). Year to date, precious metals lead the commodity complex as seen with Gold (+64.5%), Palladium (+80.4%), Platinum (+127.6%), and Silver (+142.3%).
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Currencies
The U.S. Dollar index (-1.4%) was down in December and is down 9.5% since the start of the year.
Cryptocurrencies
Benchmark Bitcoin (-3.6%) fell again in December, while Ethereum (-2.2%) was also down. Over the year, Bitcoin (-6.3%) trailed bonds, stocks, and gold.
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Have questions or concerns about the performance of your portfolio? Could you benefit from a capital preservation strategy or a custom portfolio formulation that better aligns to your return goals and risk appetite? Whatever your needs, we are here to listen and to help. Contact us here.
Saffron Capital LLC is a registered investment advisor that provides guided growth and risk-managed portfolios. The company is employee-owned and Minnesota-based.
