March 28, 2024

Download – Bond Market Masterclass

The Bond Market MasterClass was taught March 27, 2024 at the Magrath Library, UofM St. Paul campus. The Bond Market MasterClass navigates the intricate world of fixed income markets. The bond market can be daunting since there are so many different kinds of fixed income securities.  The course reviewed each […]
March 3, 2024

February 2024 Returns and Asset Performance

Major Asset Classes February 2024 Performance Comparison Introduction February 2024 returns marked the fourth straight month of positive stock market gains.  Once again, concentrated equity portfolios with the largest companies outperformed index benchmarks.  However, the market’s true strength lies with those sectors that are now outperforming Technology shares, notably small […]
February 3, 2024

January 2024 Returns and Asset Performance

Major Asset Classes January 2024 Performance Comparison Introduction January 2024 market returns saw the return of Commodities as the top asset group.  In other markets, US stocks beat international markets, corporate bonds marginally outperformed Treasuries, and the US Dollar outpaced all other currencies.  January was also unique as the SEC […]
February 1, 2024

Download – Decrypting Crypto

‘Decrypting Crypto’ was a course sponsored by the U0fM OLLI center. I was one of three teachers invited to present.  The course was taught February 1 and 8, 2024. My role was to compare digital currencies to other mediums of exchange and stores of value.  I presented the basic steps […]
January 1, 2024

December 2023 Returns and Asset Performance

Major Asset Classes December 2023 Performance Comparison Introduction Stocks Investors have a lot to cheer given that December 2023 market returns made for a positive month, quarter, and year.  The S&P 500 index rallied +4.4% in December, finishing the year up +24.2%.  Key drivers include high US GDP growth, better-than-expected […]
December 6, 2023

S&P 500 Earnings Forecasts – 4Q.2023

S&P 500 Earnings Forecasts – 4Q.2023 Prelude to Earnings Season The S&P 500 index saw year-on-year earnings growth for 4.8% in the third quarter.  It’s now time to consolidate net income forecasts by company for the fourth quarter to see earnings growth estimates for the large-cap index and its eleven […]
December 1, 2023

November 2023 Returns and Asset Performance

Major Asset Classes November 2023 Performance Comparison Introduction November 2023 market returns were broadly positive.  Stocks and fixed income assets had their best performance month of the year.  For example, the S&P 500 index (+8.9%) and the NASDAQ100 Index (+10.8%) benefited from an improved rate outlook, a strong GDP trend, […]
November 3, 2023

October 2023 Returns and Asset Performance

Major Asset Classes October 2023 Performance Comparison Introduction Strong GDP growth in the third quarter is the backdrop for October 2023 market returns.  Still, the U.S. equity markets fell last month, the third monthly loss in a row. Meanwhile, key drivers included mixed third quarter earnings results, surging long-dated yields, […]
October 23, 2023

ETF Fund Flows: October 20, 2023

ETF Fund Flows – October 20, 2023 ETF fund flows define the net dollar inflows and outflows for exchange traded funds over predefined periods.  Fund flows are useful to identify market trends.  The data broadly reveals the rotations investors make as they shift their funds across different assets, market sectors, […]
October 19, 2023

Treasury Yields and the Probability of a Recession

Treasury Yields and the Probability of Recession The Treasury yield curve depicts the interest rates on debt for different maturities.  Analyzing changes in the yield curve can provide valuable insights into the market’s expectations for future economic conditions.  This article explores the relationship between Treasury yields and the probability of […]