Insight Reports
February 3, 2024
Major Asset Classes January 2024 Performance Comparison Introduction January 2024 market returns saw the return of Commodities as the top asset group. In other markets, US stocks beat international markets, corporate bonds marginally outperformed Treasuries, and the US Dollar outpaced all other currencies. January was also unique as the SEC […]
February 1, 2024
‘Decrypting Crypto’ was a course sponsored by the U0fM OLLI center. I was one of three teachers invited to present. The course was taught February 1 and 8, 2024. My role was to compare digital currencies to other mediums of exchange and stores of value. I presented the basic steps […]
January 1, 2024
Major Asset Classes December 2023 Performance Comparison Introduction Stocks Investors have a lot to cheer given that December 2023 market returns made for a positive month, quarter, and year. The S&P 500 index rallied +4.4% in December, finishing the year up +24.2%. Key drivers include high US GDP growth, better-than-expected […]
December 6, 2023
S&P 500 Earnings Forecasts – 4Q.2023 Prelude to Earnings Season The S&P 500 index saw year-on-year earnings growth for 4.8% in the third quarter. It’s now time to consolidate net income forecasts by company for the fourth quarter to see earnings growth estimates for the large-cap index and its eleven […]
December 1, 2023
Major Asset Classes November 2023 Performance Comparison Introduction November 2023 market returns were broadly positive. Stocks and fixed income assets had their best performance month of the year. For example, the S&P 500 index (+8.9%) and the NASDAQ100 Index (+10.8%) benefited from an improved rate outlook, a strong GDP trend, […]
November 3, 2023
Major Asset Classes October 2023 Performance Comparison Introduction Strong GDP growth in the third quarter is the backdrop for October 2023 market returns. Still, the U.S. equity markets fell last month, the third monthly loss in a row. Meanwhile, key drivers included mixed third quarter earnings results, surging long-dated yields, […]
October 23, 2023
ETF Fund Flows – October 20, 2023 ETF fund flows define the net dollar inflows and outflows for exchange traded funds over predefined periods. Fund flows are useful to identify market trends. The data broadly reveals the rotations investors make as they shift their funds across different assets, market sectors, […]
October 19, 2023
Treasury Yields and the Probability of Recession The Treasury yield curve depicts the interest rates on debt for different maturities. Analyzing changes in the yield curve can provide valuable insights into the market’s expectations for future economic conditions. This article explores the relationship between Treasury yields and the probability of […]
October 17, 2023
3Q.2023 Earnings Update – S&P 500 Index Earnings The 3Q earnings season is off to a strong start with 7% of firms reporting. In aggregate, actual earnings reported are 10% above consensus estimates. As a result, the annual earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 index has increased from 0% […]
October 3, 2023
Major Asset Classes September 2023 Performance Comparison Introduction September 2023 returns were negative across many asset groups. U.S. equities declined two months in a row for their first quarterly decline since Q3 2022. In addition, rates on long bonds posted their biggest quarterly advance since 2009. In response, the US […]