July 15, 2022

Commitment of Traders Report 2022.07.12

Futures and Options Commitment of Traders Report July 12, 2022 Introduction Purpose The Commitments of Traders Report presents a weekly breakdown of the positions of hedge funds in futures and options markets. As a general rule, changes in hedge fund positions are positively correlated with changes in commodity market prices. […]
July 14, 2022

S&P 500 Earnings Update – 2Q.2022

S&P 500 Earnings Update – 2Q.2022 Prelude to Earnings Season The second quarter earnings season ((2Q.2022) has just begun.  We share the latest  earnings forecasts for the S&P 500 index. Market Context Return Profile Prices and returns for the S&P 500 index are profiled at right.  In the second quarter, […]
July 6, 2022

Commitment of Traders Report 2022.07.05

Futures and Options Commitment of Traders Report July 05, 2022 Introduction Purpose The Commitments of Traders Report presents a weekly breakdown of the positions of hedge funds in futures and options markets. As a general rule, changes in hedge fund positions are positively correlated with changes in commodity market prices. […]
July 3, 2022

June Returns and Asset Performance

Major Asset Classes June 2022 Performance Comparison Introduction June returns for the S&P 500 index had one of the largest drawdowns in the last 10 years.   Red ink is evident across all major asset classes.  US equity indexes have now fallen 4 out of the first 6 months of […]
June 29, 2022

Commitment of Traders Report 2022.06.28

Futures and Options Commitment of Traders Report June 28, 2022 Purpose The Commitments of Traders Report presents a weekly breakdown of the positions of hedge funds in futures and options markets. As a general rule, changes in hedge fund positions are positively correlated with changes in commodity market prices. For […]
June 3, 2022

May Returns and Asset Performance

Major Asset Classes May 2022 Performance Comparison Introduction May returns benefited from ‘spike lows’ in several asset markets, setting the stage for relief rallies over the second half of the month.  Performance across US equity indexes was mixed with several sectors posting notable gains.  Developed markets also posted positive gains […]
May 19, 2022

The Bumpy Road to Average Returns

The Bumpy Road to Average Returns Since 1926, the US stock market has rewarded investors with an average annual return of about 10%. But it’s important to remember that performance in any given year may be sky-high, extremely poor, or somewhere in between.  For example: Annual returns came within two […]
May 2, 2022

April Returns and Asset Performance

Major Asset Classes April 2022 Performance Comparison Introduction April market volatility was notable.  Red ink swept across the monthly results for most asset classes, highlighting the need for active risk management and strategies for capital preservation.  Equity and bond markets were down world-wide with few exceptions.  Strength in the US […]
April 19, 2022

Returns of the Biggest Large Cap Stocks

Think Twice Before Chasing the Biggest Large Cap Stocks The return profiles of companies change as they grow to become large cap stocks.  This is especially true of the ten largest companies trading on the US stock market. Initially, the returns that pushed them into leadership positions were impressive. But […]
April 2, 2022

March Returns and Asset Performance

Major Asset Classes March 2022 Performance Comparison Introduction March returns across markets were extraordinary for their speed and scale.   Returns across the asset classes were again dominated by events in Ukraine. Equity markets world-wide were up with only a few exceptions in the emerging markets. The market risk regime […]